Perhaps later once people start automated rerolling we will find that within tier the probabilities are not equal, or something like that. But this is the working assumption we are going on. This is assuming that first the app selects whether you get a 5*, 5* focus, 4*, etc, then determines the character randomly from within the tier list. Once someone does a couple hundred rerolls under both the methods above, we should know whether this is the case.Įdit: Below /u/MuNought worked out the conditional probabilities of getting a 5* for the legendary heroes summon. If Nintendo has baked in some correlations across orbs within summons, this may not quite work. Legendary Heroes - only summon red and blue orbs.ĭeep Devotion - only summon red, green, and transparent (grey) orbs.Īll this is assuming the summoning is truly independently from orb to orb. Tl dr: to simply maximize only the number of 5*: But you can take advantage of it for now. I am guessing Nintendo will catch this and ensure all 4 colors are in every focus for summon events moving forward.
#DEEP DEVOTION OR LEGENDARY HEROES FULL#
But otherwise buying 4 single summons is better, if choosing colors wisely, than 1 set of all 5 (disregarding color).Īnyways if this generates interest I can write out the full Bayesian calculations. Of course if you also need some 4*, or have all the focus 5*, or need a 5* of a certain color, etc, it may make sense to summon all of them. In reality, the difference is even larger because some reds only cost 4 and some greens or transparents probably cost 4 as well. Even if every red orb cost the full 5, you will spend only 75 crystals to get one 5* hero. Even if each green orb only cost 3, you will spend 100 crystals to get one 5* hero. Thus, on average you need 33 green orb summons to get a 5* on that event, but only 16 red orb summons to get a 5* (focus or non-focus).
A green or transparent, however, will ONLY have a 3% chance of being a 5*. (The bayesian updating is a little more complex I think, in part because there are 3 red focus 5, but this is close enough). Thus there is about a 6% chance of a red being a 5*. Thus every red or blue summoning orb could be either a focus 5* (3% chance) or a regular 5* (3% chance). There are no green or transparent (grey) focus heroes. This event has 4 focus heroes, 3 that are red and one that is blue. Why? Let's take the current Legendary Heroes summon event. Just a heads up, but if you are aiming to simply get 5* heroes, especially if you don't have the focus heroes yet, it is rarely optimal to summon all 5 of the summon orbs at one time.
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